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GFT Daily Market Commentary

Forex Market Commentary for August 29, 2008 by Cornelius Luca

GFT Daily Market Commentary

The dollar made little progress versus most of the majors, but pushed further up against the pound. Trading will get very thin in the short day before the Labor Day weekend, but the US economic calendar is busy. It will feature personal income and spending reports for July, the Chicago PMI report for August, the University of Michigan survey for September, and the core PCE deflator report for July. Expect choppy trading without much direction.

Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar reversed early gains to close lower on Thursday, as expected. Once again, following an early recovery, the pair should resume its decline. My model is long.

Initial resistance is now seen at 1.4760. The next levels are 1.4780 and 1.4800. A pivotal level is in place at 1.4910.

Immediate support comes at 1.4665.  The next level is 1.4572. Below 1.4540, support comes at 1.4485 and 1.4455.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen consolidated in an inside range on Thursday and closed virtually unchanged. Again. Unless the 110.00 area gives way, the pair will retest the 108.65 area. My model remains (barely) short.

Immediate resistance is still in place at 110.00. Strong resistance follows at 110.35 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.85 and 110.85. Distant resistance is 111.60 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 112.10 and 111.10.

Strong support remains at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar sank further a new over two-year low on Thursday and the selling pressure should continue.

Initial support is at 1.8240. Below 1.8207, cable has support at 1.8127.

Immediate resistance now comes at 1.8355. This is followed by 1.8437 and 1.8565. The next strong resistance remains 1.8620.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss closed marginally higher after alternating up and down days for nine days.  The medium-term outlook remains positive, but trading should remain choppy to early next week.

Initial resistance remains at 1.1025. The next levels come at 1.1054 and 1.1086. Strong resistance follows at 1.1185.

The pair still sees immediate support at 1.0955.  This is followed by the area between 1.0925 and 1.0915. A pivot low remains at 1.0844, but this should not be challenged.

Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

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GFT Daily Market Commentary

Forex Market Commentary for August 28, 2008 by Cornelius Luca

GFT Daily Market Commentary

The proximity of Labor Day weekend surely doesn’t make things easier in the currency markets. Nor did the half-baked measures at Fannie Mae. The dollar closed slightly lower against the euro and franc on Wednesday, but basically flat versus the pound and yen.  However, trading was quite volatile. The dollar lacks much direction, so expect more choppy trading for a couple of days. Only the German unemployment rate report is of interest, as the Nationswide housing price report should be negative.

Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar corrected into an inside range on Wednesday after falling to a near 6 ½-month low a day earlier. Again, following an early recovery, the pair should resume its decline. My model reversed its short position. Sideways to lower trading is likely.

Initial resistance is now seen at 1.4780. The next good level is at 1.4800. A pivotal level is in place at 1.4910.

Immediate support comes at 1.4710.  The next levels are 1.4665 and 1.4572. Below 1.4540, support comes at 1.4485 and 1.4455.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen had an outside day ahead of month end, but closed virtually unchanged on Wednesday. Unless the 110.00 area gives way, the pair will retest the 108.65 area. My model is (barely) short. 
 
Immediate resistance is still in place at 110.00. Strong resistance follows at 110.35 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.85 and 110.85. Distant resistance is 111.60 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 112.10 and 111.10.
 
Strong support remains at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish  
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar sank to a new over two-year low on Wednesday and the selling pressure should continue.

Initial support is at 1.8286. This is followed by 1.8245.  Below 1.8207, cable has support at 1.8127. 
 
Immediate resistance now comes at 1.8437.  This is followed by 1.8565. The next strong resistance remains 1.8620.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish 
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss closed marginally lower after alternating up and down days for eight days.  The medium-term outlook remains positive, but trading should remain choppy for a couple of days.

Initial resistance is at 1.1025. The next levels come at 1.1054 and 1.1086. Strong resistance follows at 1.1185.

The pair still sees immediate support at 1.0955.  This is followed by the area between 1.0925 and 1.0915. A pivot low remains at 1.0844, but this should not be challenged.

Oscillators are rising.

 
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish  
LONG-TERM: Mixed

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GFT Daily Market Commentary

GFT Daily Market Commentary

GFT Daily Market Commentary

The dollar traded higher against all the majors on Tuesday. The rally was exacerbated by stacking evidence regarding the weakening the Eurozone economy; the Ifo institute’s index of German business climate fell to 94.8 from 97.5 in July, while the sub-index of business expectations fell to 87, the lowest since February 1993. With the dollar basically alternating up and down days ahead of the long US weekend, it should edge lower first before the next upmove.

Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar fell to a near 6 ½-month low on Tuesday before trimming losses. Following an early recovery, its decline should resume. My model went short after the release of the horrible Ifo report, so I like the pair down overall.

Immediate support comes at 1.4635.  The next level is 1.4572. Below 1.4540, support comes at 1.4485 and 1.4455.

Initial resistance is now seen at 1.4710. The next good level is at 1.4800. A pivotal level is in place at 1.4910.

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen continued to alternate up and down days, but the upmove on Tuesday was not significant at the pair got stuck in an inside range.
 
Immediate resistance is at 110.00. Strong resistance follows at 110.35 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.85 and 110.85. Distant resistance is 111.60 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 112.10 and 111.10.
 
Strong support remains at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish 
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish  
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar fell to an over two-year low on Tuesday and the selling pressure should persist.

This is followed by 1.8245.  Below 1.8207, cable has support at 1.8127. 
 
Immediate resistance now comes at 1.8443.  This is followed by 1.8565. The next strong resistance remains 1.8620.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish 
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss rallied to a six-month high on Tuesday before giving up most of its gains.  My model is now long.  The medium-term outlook remains positive, but trading should be choppy for a couple of days.

Initial resistances come at 1.1054 and 1.1086. Strong resistance follows at 1.1185.

The pair sees immediate support at 1.0955.  This is followed by the area between 1.0925 and 1.0915. A pivot low remains at 1.0844, but this should not be challenged.

Oscillators are rising.

 
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish  
LONG-TERM: Mixed

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GFT Daily Market Commentary

Forex Market Commentary for August 26, 2008 by Cornelius Luca

GFT Daily Market Commentary

The dollar followed divergent paths on a Monday thinned by the London holiday, as euro/yen and euro/Swiss drove the market.  The US currency rallied versus the commodity currencies, fell against the yen and closed little changed versus the European currencies.  With the US equity markets under pressure, the dollar should make a choppy decline.  Keep an eye on the German Ifo report and on the US new home sales and consumer confidence reports.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar recovered most of early losses caused by sales of euro/yen and euro/Swiss.  It should attempt another recovery in the short term before the next decline. My model is still long, but the immediate risk is on the downside.
 
Initial support is now seen at 1.4697. The next levels are 1.4631 and 1.4600. 
 
Immediate resistance comes at 1.4805. This is followed by 1.4845, 1.4902 and 1.4950. 

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen is alternating up and down days, and Monday was a down day – eventually. This is because the pair aggressively reversed early gains. The initial risk is on the upside now – if 109.15 holds.
 
Immediate resistance remains at 109.65. Strong resistance follows at 110.35 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.85 and 110.85. Distant resistance is 111.60 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 112.10 and 111.10.
 
Strong support is at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65.

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish 
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish  
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar remains weak, even though it managed to crawl to flat from a new low for its downmove. The medium-term outlook remains negative, while the short-term outlook is mixed.
 
Immediate support moved up to 1.8450. Further supports are at 1.8405, 1.8330 and 1.8190. 
 
Initial resistance now comes at 1.8565.  The next likely cap remains 1.8620.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish 
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss franc has been alternating up and down days for six days and my model remains barely short.  The immediate risk is now on the upside while the market is trying to make up its mind.
 
Initial support is still pegged at the nearby level at 1.0910.  Below 1.0855, support remains at 1.0725.

Immediate resistance is at 1.1030. Above it, key resistance remains at 1.1185. 

Oscillators are declining.

 
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish  
LONG-TERM: Mixed

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GFT Daily Market Commentary

Forex Market Commentary for August 25, 2008 by Cornelius Luca

GFT Daily Market Commentary

The market is looking for a dip to buy dollars again after missing the big rally on July 22.  The US currency rallied on Friday for this reason, but the sell-off in oil and the rally in stocks on rumors that Lehman will be bought underpinned.  The immediate risk is on the upside and the only US economic report is existing home sales.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar gave back most of the gains made on Thursday.  My model is long, but the immediate risk is on the downside.
 
Initial support is now seen at 1.4760. The next levels are 1.4700 and 1.4631. 
 
Immediate resistance comes at 1.4845. This is followed by 1.4902 and 1.4950. The next levels remain at 1.5015 and 1.5065.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen reversed aggressively all of the losses made a day earlier. My model is barely short. The initial risk is barely on the upside now.
 
Immediate resistance remains at 110.35 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.85 and 110.85. Distant resistance is 111.60 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 112.10 and 111.10.
 
Support remains at 109.85. Further strong support is at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65.

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish 
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish  
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar failed its attempt to recover and closed on a very bearish tone on Friday. The medium term outlook remains negative.
 
Immediate support is at 1.8405. Further supports are at 1.8330 and 1.8190. 
 
Initial resistance now comes at 1.8480.  The next likely cap is 1.8620.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish 
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss franc reversed Thursday’s sharp losses while alternating up and down days and my model is barely short here.  The immediate risk is now on the upside while the market is trying to make up its mind.
 
Immediate resistance is at 1.1040. Above it, key resistance remains at 1.1185. 
 
Initial support is pegged at 1.0910.  Below 1.0855, support remains at 1.0725.

Oscillators are declining.

 
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish  
LONG-TERM: Mixed

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